November 18, 2011

MY PREDICTIONS: UEFA Euro 2012 (without AARs)

 
#
FLAG
ORIGIN
REFEREE
DoB
1
ENGLAND
ATKINSON MARTIN
1971
2
GERMANY
BRYCH FELIX*
1975
3
TURKEY
CAKIR CUNEYT
1976
4
SWEDEN
ERIKSSON JONAS
1974
5
HUNGARY
KASSAI VIKTOR
1975
6
NETHERLANDS
KUIPERS BJÖRN
1973
7
NORWAY
MOEN SVEIN ODDVAR
1979
8
PORTUGAL
PROENCA PEDRO
1970
9
ITALY
RIZZOLI NICOLA
1971
10
SLOVENIA
SKOMINA DAMIR
1976
11
SCOTLAND
THOMSON CRAIG
1972
12
SPAIN
VELASCO CARBALLO CARLOS
1971


#
FLAG
ORIGIN
ASSISTANT REFEREE
DoB
1
SPAIN
ALONSO FERNÁNDEZ ROBERTO
1976
2
SLOVENIA
ARHAR PRIMOZ
1968
3
GERMANY
BORSCH MARK
1977
4
SPAIN
CALVO GUADAMURO JESÚS
1968
5
SCOTLAND
CRYANS MARTIN
1969
6
TURKEY
DURAN BAHATTIN
1975
7
HUNGARY
ERÖS GÁBOR
1971
8
ITALY
FAVERANI RENATO
1969
9
PORTUGAL
GARCIAS BOLINHAS TRIGO  JOSÉ TIAGO
1972
10
NORWAY
HAGLUND KIM THOMAS
1977
11
ENGLAND
KIRKUP PETER
1970
12
SWEDEN
KLASENIUS MATHIAS
1975
13
ENGLAND
MULLARKEY MICHAEL
1970
14
NORWAY
NEBBEN DAG-ROGER
1980
15
SWEDEN
NILSSON FREDRIK
1972
16
TURKEY
ONGUN TARIK
1973
17
HUNGARY
RING GYÖRGY
1981
18
SCOTLAND
ROSS ALASDAIR
1975
19
PORTUGAL
SANTOS RICARDO
1973
20
GERMANY
SCHIFFNER THORSTEN
1975
21
SLOVENIA
STANCIN MARKO
1968
22
ITALY
STEFANI ANDREA
1969
23
NETHERLANDS
VAN ROEKEL SANDER
1974
24
NETHERLANDS
ZEINSTRA ERWIN E.J.
1977


#
FLAG
ORIGIN
4th OFFICIAL
DoB
1
FRANCE
CHAPRON TONY
1972
2
CZECH REPUBLIC
KRALOVEC PAVEL
1977
3
RUSSIA
NIKOLAEV ALEKSEI
1971
4
CROATIA
STRAHONJA MARIJO
1975
5
SWITZERLAND
STUDER STÉPHAN
1975
6
AUSTRIA
SCHÖRGENHOFER ROBERT
1973

* Due to the high perfomance density amongst the two German referees Felix Brych and Wolfgang Stark, this prediction is no safe one. I could have also chosen Stark, it is a 50-50 case, even though I have followed them for years, I cannot decide which referee one should take. Following the perfomance and appointment principle, Brych could lead by a nose, Stark's good perfomances in tough matches including his great experience cannot be ignored either.
If there is a representative from (one of) the host nations, it will certainly be Pawel Gil working as 4th official.

22 Comments:

  1. So, do you think that UEFA will leave Webb, Stark, Undiano and Benquerenca at home???

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  2. I think Webb will go instead of Atkinson, and possibly Stark in place of Brych.

    As for the rest, I agree totally. Thompson, IMO, is the best FIFA ref going at the minute, and could go really far in the tournement!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hm, my marks I made during the last days confirmed your impression. Even though his decisions are not always 100% correct, he received many matches, but I want to emphasize that he had too many rather weak perfomances (such as Villarreal-OB).
    Yes, I think the three big names will stay at home. But, if you ask me now, I favour Stark. In a few moments I will prefer Brych, it is a 50-50 decision, I put Brych into the list of predictions, but it is perhaps more probable that Stark will join the tournament.
    No option to my mind for Undiano and Benquerenca. Undiano has received 6 (!!!!) UEFA matches in 2011, how should a Euro nomination be justified if Kuipers - at the same time - has received 14 matches??!!
    Proenca is the Portuguese no.1, I do not see any reason to appoint Benquerenca again, Proenca is in my opinion better in
    a) fitness
    b) style & "personality in the pitch"
    c) calls
    d) control

    Against this backround, I have made my predictions. But I want to stress that. Stark vs Brych is a 50-50 decision! I had to insert a name, I chose Brych, I could have chosen Stark for good reason as well.

    ReplyDelete
  4. F. Taveira18/11/11 18:59

    Just some aspects i disagree with you. I believe Webb will be in his second EURO. Probably some changes in AR's (in POR and NED teams probably) and normally we have some representative of the host country. Probably Pawel Gil as 4th?!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes, I had him in the 4th official list. Then I recognized that I had forgotten another Pavel, Pavel Kralovec. So I replaced Gil by Kralovec. Furthermore, I though about the option to replace Chapron by Gil, but two aspects were against that:
    a) Batta
    b) if Poland gets a slot, Ukraine must get one as well..at least if UEFA is applying its "equality-politics" concerning host nations.

    Miranda is a great assistant referee, I know. I also know that he was appointed at Proenca's side in Croatia. However, I also know that he made no convincing perfomance at all and another, even more important aspect supports the prediction I made: Why should UEFA (what they have already done with regard to the playoffs) a team which functioned very well for two years?!
    The same counts for Netherlands, but I do not think UEFA can ignore Zeinstra's pushing by FIFA (at Moen's side in Mexico), UEFA often mixed the Dutch trio during the last months, that was by far the hardest decision to make concerning assistant referees.
    I made them without presuming the aars, that was really hard, because we do not know whether UEFA would e.g. appoint Rocchi and Tagliavento at Rizzoli's side..
    Another difficult case is Juan Yuste Jiménez..

    ReplyDelete
  6. and Andas as well. Failing in the FIFA tests, then less appointments with Moen in CL, Nebben, we know him, he made one big error in his career, apart from that, he to my mind counts to the biggest talents we have.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Studer? I don't think so. Webb and Stark instead Velasco and Skomina. That's only my choice. I think that both Spaniards are worse than the rest of names in this list. Skomina had bad last season in my opinion. UEFA - put on quality not on the names!

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  8. By the way, Gagelmann in BVB - Bayern match is ridiculous decision by DFB. I am shocked.

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  9. Gagelmann is one of the winners of Fandel functioning as referee chief since last year. He received many important matches and did not disappoint us, however, I will never be a real fan of him. I find the English appointments even more ridiculous, Atkinson in Chelsea-Liverpool is surely ok, but often, the FA appoints guys like Foy or Phil Down äh Dowd. These men are in my opinion the best example for why the age-borderline still exists.
    Skomina had no really amazing season, that is right, but however, I doubt that he will stay at home..the same counts for the Spaniards, Undiano is no option IMO, Velasco was good until the Dublin Final and has probably too less experience for a Euro, but...there is always a Spanish team.
    I think the 4th officials will come from different countries as the main teams, hence I think Studer could be a safe bet taking into consideration that he joined FIFA U17 WC (--> Pre list)

    ReplyDelete
  10. When is the full list usually announced???

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hello Niclas.
    I agree with the twelve names, but not with the fourth officials. I think Studer and Chapron are wrong predictions. Ok, they are on the FIFA Pre-List, but UEFA has its autonomy. I think we will see a polish and a ukrainian. My guesses are Borski and maybe Shvetsov.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Collina said - in an article published in an Italian newspaper - that he is going to make and publish the full list in December.
    I think it could be just a few days prior to christmas, normally, the UEFA lists of groups are updated on 23/12 (?).

    ReplyDelete
  13. Ok, if there will be two refs from the host nation, which names could be interesting?

    I assume we should focus on:
    UKR: Shvetsov, Boiko
    POL: Borski, Gil

    My choices are Boiko and Gil. However, the Polish federation thinks about the opportunity that the host nations offer teams for the additional assistant referees...

    ReplyDelete
  14. Gagelmann very, very well in Bayern
    against Borussia. One great referee
    with future.
    Very bad Stark in Portugal-Bosnia.
    Pepe, red card indubitable.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hui, do you talk about the last season?
    Gagelmann has no future at all, he is 43, the oldest ref in Germany. I did not like his perfomance. He missed several free kicks and a penalty to Bayern in minute 81. Furthermore, he wanted to issue a yellow card to Luiz Gustavo - which would have been justified - looked on his card whether he was cautioned and then plugged the card in again. It was 87' minute, he simply did not want to show a red card in this match, and what I have learnt from German referees during the last seasons is that red cards to Bayern players are at the borderline of a lese majesty.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Niclas, maybe you know the answer. Why German referees are so incosistent in the card policy? They do all things to not show yellow cards (sometimes reds) in first minutes of the game, even if this cards are obvious! I hate this way of refereeing. Gagelmann was poor yesterday. His foul and card detection didn't convince me. I am frustrated, when he didn't book Badstuber for foul in 2nd minute. And one else about German refereeing, why they add so few minutes as additional time. These two things are most irritating for me.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I partly agree with you.
    Even though I doubt that is merely a German phenomenon (is Kassai German?), they have the instruction to show control, to try leading the match with words, not with cards. Cards against Bayern München is a special topic..but several situations refute your statement. Yesterday, Winkmann sent a Rostock player in 2nd Bundesliga off after just 7 minutes. The match was intensive from minute one, several thousands of policemen had to protect the game (it was a derby), he did not hesitate to issue the dismission. This season is some kind of revolution of German refereeing. Since Fandel has joined the head of DFB referee comitee, the referees are more consistent. At the moment, they have issued more red cards than last season at matchday 25 (now we have 13!).

    Although I only sometimes referee smaller matches in my town, I of course can say that I try it without cards at the beginning as well, but I emphasized it a hundred times, lenient styles may not lead to blindness, sometimes this happened with Kassai, but also with Gagelmann and perhaps Kircher, too. However, at least the German perfomances in CL during the last months should have shown that there is a trend reversal in this field.

    Concerning the minutes of added time. If there are no obvious indicators that a team is wasting time, if only one goal was scored within 90 minutes, where is the reason for more than 2 minutes? Better 2 minutes than a referee who decides that there are 4 minutes of added time although a team leads with 3-0, because THIS is really disgraceful.

    I am still content with German refereeing as I do not see that many better examples in Europe, not in Spain, not in England (with a few exceptions..), perhaps in Italy.

    The good thing which gives me hope is that DFB has given the new FIFA badges to two referees (Fritz, Zwayer) who are...
    a) young
    b) brave
    c) lenient, but consistent when there are fouls which need a card.

    The last aspect shows the development since Fandel is here.

    ReplyDelete
  18. OK. I don't agree with one thing - additional time - I don't speak about Bayern - Borussia, but about other matches. I saw many times, when referee didn't add any additional minute, although it was cards, goals, injuries. If one team lead 3-0 and there is many pauses in play, 6 substitutions, so why referee can't add 4 minutes? I think, that he MUST (rule book). By the way, Guido Winkmann is very good referee with not German style (brave, show card when need). Kind regards.

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  19. Hm yes, of course, when there are many interruptions, yes.
    Please explain to Bayern supporter Webb's decision in 2009. Barca dominated Bayern, led 4-0 at the half time, then they did nothing not to humble their opponents. Webb awarded 4 minutes. No one understands that with a bit common sense..

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  20. Cakir again with a top clash...this guy will referee the CL final in one of the next 2 seasons, I am 100% sure.
    See respective post.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Finally, I have decided my list, and tried to explain a little bir why these names:

    Atkinson; He is representative of calmness.
    Stark; Man of experience in list, UEFA may trust him forever.
    Kassai; Tested too many times, if he concentrates well, a typical candidate for final
    Rizzoli; One of most possible hot final candidate, he knows what he is doing...
    Carballo; Really dont know what to expect from this man...
    Lannoy; Fun of tournament, but he has overseen a WC do not deny it...
    Kuipers; Biggest spare for hot matches, secret weapon of committee
    Proenca; Another secret weapon...calm, unfloppable
    Thomson; Too lenient sometimes, but mostly correct on each decision
    Skomina; Very passionate, may fail or may shine
    Eriksson; he has taken those steps one by one...
    Cakir; very passionate, may fail or may shine

    ReplyDelete
  22. Very nice, interesting, that we have only one difference, and exactly this is in Germany :D

    After Lannoy's appointment for Man City-Bayern I of course think in a different way not, too..

    ReplyDelete

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